A battle of monsoonal versus dry air continues across Colorado, with the Continental Divide<\/span> roughly acting as the barrier, as seen in the water vapor image below. To the east, Denver’s morning PW<\/span> of 0.66 inches is up significantly from yesterday’s 0.47 inches. However, subsidence noted by a distinct warm layer around 500 mb and very dry air aloft will continue to place a lid on storms activity in most areas east of the Continental Divide<\/span> (with the exception being the Southeast Mountains). To the west is where things get interesting. This morning’s PW<\/span> at Grand Junction came in at an impressive 1.30 inches, which is close the daily record and also within about 10% of the all-time record value in the 1.45 inch range. PW<\/span> should stay steady or perhaps slightly decrease as some intrusion of dry air is likely around the very high terrain. However, PW<\/span> well above 1 inch should persist towards the UT border. Surface moisture was equally impressive with dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s over the lower elevations of the Grand Valley and Southwest Slope. Instability up to 1,500 J\/kg is expected for this afternoon, which is on the higher range of typical monsoon<\/span> activity. Generally southeasterly steering flow of ~15mph should keep storms moving, with enough shear<\/span> present to support a more organized storm complex or two, just like on Tuesday. A once impressive, but now decaying storm complex was noted in southeast UT this morning, and its circulation could prevent storms due to cloud cover along the UT border itself. However, to the east, this decaying circulation could continue to enhance storm activity over the San Juans, Elk Mountains, Grand Mesa and the Flat Tops. With the aforementioned factors and yesterday’s storm totals on the high side of guidance (see State Precipitation Map discussion), a LOW flood threat continues to be warranted over large parts of the western slope for this afternoon through late evening. There is some inclination to go with a higher threat today, but unfortunately the main hesitation is a lack of confidence for any given location.<\/p>\n
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