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<\/a><\/p>\nAfter a few recent monsoon<\/span> seasons turned out to be “duds”, most notably 2020, 2021 is reminding is just how persistent higher terrain storm activity can be when enough monsoon<\/span> moisture is present. As we repeat many times within our discussions, our unique topography can drive its own atmospheric circulation that generates storms activity. Although the monsoon<\/span> can produce dangerous flooding anywhere, it is particularly troubling for fresh burn scar areas. The table below shows that, at this point, each of our six “major” burn scars that we track daily, has experienced flooding during 2021. Of the 14 separate events (note that some of the days actually had multiple separate runoff events), 13 of the 14 have occurred during the monsoon<\/span> season. That is the bad news.<\/p>\n The good news is that new wildfire activity will be prevented as long as soil moisture is replenished with measurable rainfall every so often. Fortunately, as shown in the water vapor image, below, during the next 10 days, perhaps longer, we expect a very active monsoon<\/span> to continue across the Four Corners and into western Colorado. West of the Continental Divide<\/span>, PW<\/span> is expected to remain 20-50% above normal as residual monsoon<\/span> moisture moves around the region. Additionally, the ridge aloft that has been centered very close to Colorado in the recent days will re-emerge to the northeast\/east of us and strengthen. One important ramification of this will be an increase in temperatures especially east of the Continental Divide<\/span> where downsloping<\/span> winds will produce 100F+ heat at lower elevations below 5,000 feet. However, the more relevant impact of such a ridge position will be to keep advecting fresh monsoon<\/span> moisture from its “source” region of the highlands of western Mexico and the Gulf of California.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n