The strong upper-level trough<\/span>, a staple of our weather since Thursday, has nearly stalled out over the Great Basin as shown in the visible satellite image, below. Colorado continues to be under its influence with deep southerly flow over the state, along with numerous<\/span> disturbances embedded within that flow. Ongoing elevated convection<\/span> is moving rapidly northward in eastern, with more redevelopment later this morning. However, there is a major difference in today’s atmosphere compared to Saturday. Very dry air has finally overtaken the western portion of the state. For example, this morning’s Grand Junction sounding had a PW<\/span> of only 0.16 inches. Although this air will continue to progress eastward through the day, it will have resistance. Denver’s morning PW<\/span> was 0.80 inches, which is much above average for late May. PW<\/span> around 1 inch was noted along the Kansas border, some of which will make it back into northeast Colorado courtesy of southeastern boundary layer<\/span> flow. The dry air will eventually win out, but not before another active afternoon mainly in the Northeast Plains and the northern part of the Southeast Plains.<\/p>\n Just like the past few days, the main concern regarding heavy rainfall is not necessarily the shorter duration 1-hour amounts, but the 2-hour and 3-hour durations given that storm motion will continue to favor training<\/span>. On Saturday evening, this kind of scenario yielded more than 3 inches of rain in Las Animas county over a 2-3 hour period. For today, the area of concern is in the northeast quadrant of Colorado, along the NE and KS border, where up to 2.9 inches of rainfall over a 2-3 hour period will again be possible. Additionally, severe weather, notably large hail and damaging winds, will likely accompany the earlier storms, similar to Saturday but more isolated<\/span> in nature.<\/p>\n
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