{"id":13923,"date":"2021-05-20T08:52:47","date_gmt":"2021-05-20T14:52:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=13923"},"modified":"2021-05-20T08:52:47","modified_gmt":"2021-05-20T14:52:47","slug":"ftb-05-20-2021-warm-sunny-isolated-storms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=13923","title":{"rendered":"FTB 05-20-2021: Warm, Sunny &#038; Isolated Storms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday, May 20th, 2021<br>\nIssue Time: 8:50AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash; Flooding is&nbsp;<\/em><strong><em>NOT&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><em>expected today<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The drying trend continues across the state, which can be seen by the clear skies this morning. Outside of some fair weather cumulus over the mountains and spotty fog over the adjacent plains, it&rsquo;s a warm and sunny start to the day. Today, CO will become sandwiched between a departing system (orange &ldquo;X&rdquo;) and incoming system from the west. Weak westerly flow will begin to turn more southwesterly throughout today and diffluence flow aloft will develop. This flow is forecast to send a weak <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> across the state, which will mix with some residual moisture over the northeast corner of the state and eastern plains (associated with the departing disturbance). <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Scattered<\/span> storms look to favor the Front Range and Palmer\/Raton Ridges for develop by early afternoon. With low level moisture decreasing at the surface over the adjacent plains, storms are forecast be high-based and produce some brief <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds with only light rainfall. As storms move into the eastern plains, a couple low-end severe storms are possible along a <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;dryline&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A low-level, small-scale boundary that separates dry air from moist air. Storms develop along it because the dry air (behind the boundary) is less dense than the moisture-rich air (ahead of the boundary). Typically, it advances eastward during the afternoon and retreats westward at night.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>dryline<\/span> that sets up. The main threats from the severe storms would be hail, wind and brief heavy rainfall. Flooding is NOT forecast today.<\/p>\n<p>Back over western Colorado, large <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;dew point&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The temperature to which a given air parcel must be cooled (at constant pressure and water vapor content) in order for saturation to occur.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>dew point<\/span> depressions mean the main threat from the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> mountain storms today will be strong winds with plenty of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;virga&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Wisps or streaks of precipitation falling out of a cloud that evaporate before reaching the surface. Virga can cause strong, but short-lived, localized winds (dry microburst).&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>virga<\/span>. However, early tomorrow morning, the jet starts to poke into the southwest corner of the state from the approaching system, and this will draw some moisture northward from the Pacific\/Gulf of California. These two features are forecast to produce some early morning showers over the San Juan and Central Mountains, which are expected to continue and expand in coverage tomorrow. Finally, some measurable rainfall in the&nbsp;forecast.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-13924\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/vis_20210520.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/vis_20210520.png 1294w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/vis_20210520-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/vis_20210520-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/vis_20210520-1024x617.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\"\/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.<br><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-13436 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2021.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"717\" height=\"538\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2021.png 1292w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2021-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2021-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2021-1024x768.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 717px) 100vw, 717px\"\/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Southeast Plains, Northeast Plains &amp; Urban Corridor:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Warm day ahead with highs in the 80Fs across the lower elevations and mid-60Fs in the mountain valleys. Storms will favor development over the Front Range and adjacent ridges this afternoon where there is some residual moisture to work with. High-based showers mean only light rainfall is forecast over the mountains and adjacent plains with 1-hour rain rates up to 0.25 inches possible. As the storms move into the adjacent plains along and near the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;dryline&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A low-level, small-scale boundary that separates dry air from moist air. Storms develop along it because the dry air (behind the boundary) is less dense than the moisture-rich air (ahead of the boundary). Typically, it advances eastward during the afternoon and retreats westward at night.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>dryline<\/span>, slightly heavier rainfall is forecast &ndash; if they can break the <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;cap&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The area where a parcel of air has negative buoyancy or sinks. The intensity of the cap is measured by its convective inhibition. If the cap is sufficiently large, it may prevent thunderstorms from forming at all.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>cap<\/span>. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 1 inch (north) and 0.75 inches (south) will be possible. Flooding is NOT forecast.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 1PM to 8PM<\/p>\n<h4><strong>San Juan Mountains, Central Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope &amp; San Luis Valley:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Warm day ahead with plenty of sunshine and afternoon cloud cover over the mountains. Highs over the lower elevations will reach from the mid 70Fs to mid 80Fs with 70Fs for the higher elevation valleys. Outside of some sprinkles, rainfall is not forecast this afternoon. Additionally, it&rsquo;s going to get windy with a tightening surface gradient. <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Red Flag&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;weather conditions are extremely conducive to burning and wildfires&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Red Flag<\/span> Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued. Showers are forecast&nbsp;begin late tonight\/early tomorrow morning over the San Juan and Central Mountains. Rain rates will generally be between 0.05 and 0.10 inches per hour.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 2AM to ongoing<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday, May 20th, 2021 Issue Time: 8:50AM MDT &mdash; Flooding is&nbsp;NOT&nbsp;expected today The drying trend continues across the state, which can be seen by the clear skies this morning. Outside of some fair weather cumulus over the mountains and spotty fog over the adjacent plains, it&rsquo;s a warm and sunny start to the [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13923"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13923"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13923\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13928,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13923\/revisions\/13928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}