— A LOW<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for parts of the Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains and Southeast Mountains<\/em><\/p>\n
This morning’s visible imagery, below, shows that the slow-moving, cut-off upper-level low pressure has finally made it into the state. A clear surface low is noted this morning over the CO\/NM border. Many metrics related to heavy rainfall potential have decreased markedly since yesterday morning. For example, instability will be limited to the southeast quadrant of the state today. Mid-level lapse rates have fallen substantially, which also places a bit of a constraint on moisture convergence, and thus high-end rainfall rates. Moisture has also generally decreased with Denver’s PW<\/span> dropping from 0.76 to 0.56 inches. Although Grand Junction’s has increased from 0.40 inches to 0.61, boundary layer<\/span> moisture is still lacking for heavy rainfall activity west of the Continental Divide<\/span>. Lastly, cooler temperatures will lower the snow line to below 9,000-10,000 feet, further decreasing the concern of excessive runoff.<\/p>\n However, over the Raton Ridge and surrounding areas, the combination of strong daytime heating (see clearing on visible satellite image), deep, moist, upslope flow and relatively slow steering winds will contribute to a Moderate\/Low flood threat. A very small corridor of Moderate flood threat has been issued on the eastern face of the Wet Mountains, where antecedent rainfall above 2 inches will cause very effective runoff of any new rainfall. Isolated<\/span> flash flooding<\/span> will be possible today in the threat areas. Additionally, an elevated concern for mud flows and debris slides in steeper terrain will persist through the day and into the evening, as these processes can often show a delayed response to long duration heavy precipitation.<\/p>\n
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