Colorado’s weather is once again dominated by the persistent high pressure ridge, which has shifted its center slightly southeast into northern Arizona today (see image below). The trough<\/span> over the Pacific Northwest continues to squish the amplified ridge south, which will cause more westerly upper-level flow over western Colorado today. A piece of shortwave<\/span> energy is circulating around the high pressure, currently over northern Utah (“X” in IR satellite image below), which will work its way into northern Colorado today. This mid-level energy will help storms to fire over the northern tier of the state this afternoon, finally increasing chances for some rainfall over the parched Northwest Slope. Upper-level flow is quite strong over northern and eastern Colorado today, so storms should move fairly quickly today, reducing the chances for flooding.<\/p>\n This morning’s soundings show that plenty of mid-level moisture is still present over the state, but surface moisture is limited. The highest surface moisture is over the plains of eastern Colorado this morning, where most locations are seeing dew points<\/span> in the 50Fs, as indicated on the image below. However, weak upslope flow today will not reinforce this moisture for all but the southeast corner of the state. In fact, northerly surface winds along the Urban Corridor and southeasterly surface winds over the Southeast Plains will favor a convergence zone along the Palmer Divide<\/span> today. With the passage of the shortwave<\/span>, storms will initially fire over the high terrains and northwest corner of the state. Storms are likely to fire across most mountain regions of western Colorado, but the Southwest Slope will see the lowest chances for storms. Storms will then move east into the plains, where stronger upper-level flow and better surface moisture could allow some storms to grow more up-scale, especially near the expected Palmer Ridge convergence zone. The storms over the plains have the highest chances of dropping wetting rainfall, but fast storm motions will keep the flood threat reduced. No flooding is expected today.<\/p>\n Diurnal heating today will again mix out the limited surface moisture, which will cause inverted V profiles and increase chances for strong outflow<\/span> winds with storms. This will increase the fire danger today, as these winds could cause more rapid spread of the current wildfire boundaries, like what happened to the Williams Fork and Pine Gulch fires yesterday. A Red Flag<\/span> Warning<\/span> is in place across all of western Colorado and even the Front Range for today because of the chance of dry lightning and gusty storm outflow<\/span> winds.<\/p>\n
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