Today’s weather setup is very similar to yesterday’s as Colorado is situated between a high pressure ridge and a passing shortwave<\/span> to the northeast (see satellite graphic below). This high pressure center has shifted slightly east today, which is bringing some mid-level moisture from the south over western New Mexico, as seen by the clouds (blue) in the satellite image below. This moisture will slowly push into the southwestern part of the state today and increase chances for clouds and some showers over the San Juan Mountains, but 30Fs surface dew points<\/span> over the area this morning indicate rainfall will be light and isolated<\/span>.<\/p>\n The bigger story today is the severe thunderstorms<\/span> that are expected to track over the plains of eastern Colorado this afternoon. The height gradient between the high pressure ridge and the passing shortwave trough<\/span> is creating some moderate mid-level flow over the north\/northeast part of Colorado that is associated with an upper-level jet streak<\/span>. This is causing some lift and generating clouds and showers (blue on the image below) over the northern and northeast part of the state this morning. This upper-level flow will continue over the northeastern part of the state today, which will increase wind shear<\/span> and favor more organized thunderstorms. This stronger upper-level flow will also push storms off to the east quicker, but heavy rainfall is still expected under the stronger storm cores.<\/p>\n As the sun heats up the surface today, low pressure axis will develop over the high terrain and create upslope east-southeasterly surface winds for much of the plains. Surface dew points<\/span> will remain in the mid to upper 50Fs for most of the lower, eastern elevations with higher 60Fs forecast for the far eastern plains as the moisture will continue to be banked up against the eastern mountains (see graphic below). This will help increase instability over the area this afternoon, and set the stage for heavy rainfall. However, due to slower upper-level flow farther south (less favorable upper-level dynamics), storms that can potentially break the cap<\/span> over the Southeast Plains should be more isolated<\/span> in nature, but still capable of producing high rainfall rates. So, the Low flood threat has been extended south.<\/p>\n The highest chances for storms will be over the Northeast Plains and Palmer Ridge today. Max rain rates up to 1.6 in\/hr are possible with the storms, so a Low flood threat has been issued. Strong winds up to 65 mph are possible with the severe storms, especially over the Northeast Plains, and as storms develop further west, another round of severe hail up to (2 inch in diameter) is also possible.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/FTB_20200805_graphic.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n