— A MODERATE<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for the 416 burn area<\/em>
— A MODERATE\/LOW<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for the Southeast Mountains and parts of the San Juan Mountains, Central Mountains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains, Northeast Plains and Raton Ridge<\/em><\/p>\n
— Afternoon update possible today<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Today is expected to be one of the most active days for heavy rainfall across Colorado thus far this warm season. Let’s get right to the details. As shown in the water vapor image, below, many factors will be at play today, but as is often the case for Colorado, the most important one is by far moisture. This morning’s sounding analysis showed the following PW<\/span> around the region: 1.24 inches at Denver, 1.02 inches at Grand Junction, 1.55 inches at Dodge City, 1.49 inches at North Platte (NE) and 1.25 inches at Albuquerque (NM). These values are well above seasonal normal, with a moist atmosphere extending from the surface to the tropopause. The high moisture content is the result of an extended plume of monsoonal moisture that has basically saturated the atmosphere from top to bottom over the past 48-72 hours. In addition to the monsoonal moisture, which typically favors areas west of the Continental Divide<\/span>, a cool front is moving into eastern Colorado from the north. Although not particularly strong, it will provide just enough additional focus for boundary layer<\/span> lift and increase storm coverage mainly over the Palmer Ridge and areas further south. Extremely heavy rainfall will be possible with this situation across the southeast quadrant of Colorado. A High flood threat is warranted for the Decker and Spring Creek burn scars with dangerous debris slides and mud flows possible over these areas, and just downhill from them. A Moderate flood threat is warranted for large parts of southeast Colorado, with the threat persisting well into the overnight hours. The only hesitation in going for a High flood threat is that cells are not expected to be particularly well organized, and the very heavy rainfall duration should generally be less than an hour. However, multiple rounds of very heavy rainfall are likely. Thus, an afternoon update will be possible today to address any increase in hazards.<\/p>\n In areas further west, the San Juan Mountains are again under a Moderate flood threat today as moist soils will contribute to increase runoff efficiency. With the consecutive days of heavy rainfall, the threat of mud flows and debris slides will increase today. Note that these can occur even when the rainfall is over.<\/p>\n
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