This morning’s water vapor imagery, below, shows a nearly zonal<\/span> mid and upper-level flow is in place across the Rocky Mountain states. Very dry air is noted in Utah that will spread into western and central Colorado once again, limiting cloud cover and pushing temperatures above average again.<\/p>\n Things get more interesting farther east. A large cluster of storms is noted over South Dakota, which has sent a large-scale moist outflow boundary<\/span> southwestward into eastern Colorado this morning. How moist? The Burlington observation station (Kit Carson County) is reporting a dew point<\/span> of 63F under a low cloud deck. Meanwhile, the PW<\/span> at Denver this morning was a meager 0.39 inches, well below normal, with a surface dewpoint of 33F! Farther east, the PW<\/span> at North Platte (NE) was 0.88 inches, while Goodland (KS) measured an impressive 1.47 inches. In short, there exists a very sharp moisture gradient today across eastern Colorado. Furthermore, a surface low was noted over the western Oklahoma panhandle, which will re-develop further west in consistency with the warm season diurnal cycle in Colorado. This will help advect some of the aforementioned moisture back in the state. Instability, as measured by CAPE<\/span>, will be in around 1,500 J\/kg, though this number will be highly sensitive to the boundary layer<\/span> moisture. A CAPE<\/span> up to 3,000 J\/kg would not be out of the question along the Kansas border. With 0-6km vertical wind shear<\/span> increasing to 40+ mph today, there will be plenty of instability and dynamics to support rotating supercells. Large hail, up to 2.25 inches will be possible. The main limitation today will be the presence of a boundary layer<\/span> cap<\/span> that should limit storm coverage to the isolated<\/span>\/widely scattered<\/span> variety.<\/p>\n Finally, regarding the threat of heavy rainfall, dewpoints above 55F are expected to persist along the NE\/KS borders, with PW<\/span> over 1 inch or even higher likely, at least locally. Our high resolution is suggested 40-60% chance of precipitation, though, it’s a setup where if storms fire, they will be capable of very heavy rainfall (along with the aforementioned severe weather). It appears the high-resolution guidance is underestimating rainfall rates today though precipitation chances look reasonable. Thus, a Low Flood threat is warranted for a small part of the Northeast Plains for this afternoon and into the overnight hours for isolated<\/span> flash flooding<\/span> and field\/street flooding.<\/p>\n
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