— A LOW<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for the Spring Creek burn scar in Huerfano and Castillo counties<\/em><\/p>\n
There are two factors at play that will guide heavy rainfall chances across Colorado over the next 24-hours, as can be seen in the visible satellite imagery below.<\/p>\n
First, a rather unusual feature: a band of ongoing shower and weak embedded thunderstorms extending from the Northeast Plains southwestward into the Southeast Mountains and even spilling over into the San Luis Valley. The unusual part being the fact that this is occurring during the morning, implying some active atmospheric dynamics overhead. Loops of overnight satellite images suggests this is a mid-level disturbance that has been cut-off from the main flow, and will be a key feature in organizing this afternoon’s diurnally-enhanced shower and storm activity in southeast Colorado. This morning’s Grand Junction and Denver radiosonde’s showed a Precipitable Water<\/span> (PW<\/span>) of 0.48 and 0.65 inches, respectively. This is similar to yesterday. However, some subtle drying is expected across western and central Colorado today, as a small-scale ridge rebuilds over the Four Corners. Thus, expect less storm activity across these areas. East of the Continental Divide<\/span>, an area of higher moisture was noted on the SPC Mesoanalysis with a bulge of PW<\/span> exceeding 0.80 inches over the Southeast Plains. Overnight and morning high-resolution model guidance is having a difficult time capturing the small-scale moisture maximum and circulation with ongoing precipitation. Thus, precipitation probabilities and rain rates look too low over the Southeast Mountains and Raton Ridge this afternoon. However, the only area of concern looks to be the Spring Creek burn area, which has been highlighted with a Low flood threat today.<\/p>\n The second feature of note is a strong cool front located over the US Northern Plains, associated with an area of low pressure moving eastward today. Note the choice of the word “cool”, as for our state, this front is more noteworthy for its moisture boundary than its temperature gradient. The moisture boundary is expected to race into Colorado late this afternoon, setting the stage for some severe weather across the far eastern parts of the state. Heavy rainfall will be likely, but the only areas of concern look to be near the Kansas border. Guidance suggests PW<\/span> will increase up to 1.2 inches, with CAPE<\/span> up to 2,000 J\/kg. Upper-level storm motion will be weak but strong N\/NE low-level flow will be capable of producing enough shear<\/span> for storm cell training<\/span>. A 3-4 hour window of possibly very heavy rainfall warrants a Low flood threat for this small area.<\/p>\n
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