A cold front moved south across Colorado late on Saturday, leaving a shield of low and mid-level clouds across central and eastern parts of the state this morning. Light rain and higher-elevation snow showers were seen on radar and in surface observations mainly north of I-70 this morning. Just to our west, a large trough<\/span> was noted on water vapor imagery (see below). This will support widespread<\/span> shower and thunderstorm activity for most everyone except the southwest part of Colorado this afternoon and evening. Although the atmosphere’s dynamics are supportive of precipitation today, the combination of limited heating and marginal moisture will fortunately put a cap<\/span> on rainfall rates for most areas. High temperatures will be anywhere from 5-15F below normal. Precipitable water<\/span> (PW<\/span>) values across the state this morning ranged from 0.50-0.70 in. east of the Continental Divide<\/span> to well below 0.50 inches over western areas.<\/p>\n Over the higher terrain, rain and snow showers will pick up in intensity this afternoon, but will stay well below flood threat levels. Farther east, showers will turn into thunderstorms as more instability is encountered. The “sweet spot” today looks to be just southeast of Denver metro and over the Palmer Ridge. Latest trends in high-resolution model output are slowing the initiation of storm activity by several hours. This will allow instability to get higher than previously expected, with CAPE<\/span> in the 600-1,000 J\/kg range possible. Furthermore, low-level winds are expected to attain a more easterly component in response to the incoming trough<\/span>, with a deep layer of upslope flow possible for a 2-3 hour period this afternoon. Despite relatively low PW<\/span>, dynamics will make up for this and support isolated<\/span> heavy rainfall during the afternoon hours. A Low flood threat has been posted for parts of the region. Several rounds of heavy rainfall are possible before storms organize into a rapidly moving cluster, limiting rainfall rates later into the evening.<\/p>\n In the Southeast Plains, there will be more sunshine and slightly higher moisture today, with CAPE<\/span> values up to 1,200 J\/kg and PW<\/span> in the 0.70-0.80 range for this afternoon. Scattered<\/span> storms are expected this afternoon that will have the potential to produce large hail, up to 1.5 inches in diameter, and gusty downdraft winds up to 55 mph. Brief heavy rainfall is possible with these storms, but flooding is not expected. Later into the evening hours, light to moderate rainfall is expected as the trough<\/span> progresses eastward over the area.<\/p>\n
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