\n—Afternoon update possible today<\/span><\/p>\n
As shown in this morning’s water vapor image below, a large-scale trough<\/span> is continuing to move eastward across Colorado. Significant drying has occurred over the last 24 hours. For example, this morning’s Precipitable Water<\/span> (PW<\/span>) from the Denver and Grand Junction radiosonde balloons is 0.28 inches and 0.24 inches. However, deeper moisture is not very far away, with PW<\/span> above 1 inch just across the border into Nebraska and Kansas. With very cold upper-level temperatures today, it will not take much heating and surface moisture to initiate isolated<\/span> storm activity across the Palmer Ridge during the early afternoon. This activity will be benign, with perhaps some light showers possible along with gusty downdraft winds.<\/p>\n Of more concern is storm activity expected to develop along the aforementioned moisture boundary across the Southeast Plains. Although most of the activity will remain in Kansas, there is enough confidence that a mesoscale-to-synoptic outflow boundary<\/span> from the Kansas convection<\/span> will propagate into Colorado, carrying with it significant instability (CAPEs > 2000 J\/Kg). With relative weak storm-scale steering wind, there is the potential for prolonged redevelopment of activity over the same areas. Thus, a Low flood threat has been issued for eastern parts of the Southeast Plains. Activity could persist well into the overnight hours, supporting the threat of isolated<\/span> street and field flooding along with flooding of smaller creeks and streams. Favorable shear<\/span> profile forecasts support large hail in earlier storms, up to 2 inches in diameter.<\/p>\n Although more uncertain, it is possible that the moist outflow boundary<\/span> will make it as far west as the Wet Mountains west of Pueblo during the overnight hours. This would be unusual from a climatological perspective, but high-resolution guidance suggests that if this were to occur, heavy rainfall, capable of flooding, would be possible. Thus, an afternoon update is possible today to address this risk.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, significant cooling will occur today, which will somewhat reduce the threat of wildfire initiation and spread.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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