{"id":1146,"date":"2015-07-06T10:46:15","date_gmt":"2015-07-06T16:46:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1146"},"modified":"2015-07-06T10:46:27","modified_gmt":"2015-07-06T16:46:27","slug":"fto-07-06-2015-high-flood-threat-developing-for-event-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1146","title":{"rendered":"FTO 07-06-2015: High Flood Threat Developing for Event #1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 7\/6\/2015<br>\nIssue Time: 10:37 AM<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/ThreatTimeline_07062015.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-1151 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/ThreatTimeline_07062015.png\" alt=\"ThreatTimeline_07062015\" width=\"861\" height=\"117\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Mother Nature heard our rumblings about the upper-level ridge&rsquo;s persistence, and has decided to throw a fairly active &ldquo;wave <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;train&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>train<\/span>&rdquo; at Colorado. This &ldquo;wave <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;train&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>train<\/span>&rdquo; is very visible in the water vapor image below, highlighted by the yellow line. From West to East, you can count 4-5 full waves, with the two waves upstream of Colorado being of importance to this forecast. Event #1 is the closed, upper-level low (circled in purple), and Event #2 is the upper-level <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> shown by the black-dashed lines. These two large-scale disturbances will provide the focus for this 15-day period, so without further ado, let&rsquo;s get right to it.<\/p>\n<ul><li>Event #1: Tuesday (07-07-2015) through Friday (07-10-2015)\n<ul><li>Plenty of subtropical moisture will remain entrenched across Colorado as the approaching upper-level low (circled in purple) promotes continued moist, southwesterly flow aloft throughout the event. With the deep moisture in place, heavy rain from thunderstorms will be a significant threat. The moisture will be cut off on Saturday as the upper-level low moves east of the state.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<li>Event #2: Wednesday (07-15-2015) through Thursday (07-16-2015)\n<ul><li>Deep, subtropical moisture will overspread Colorado, once again, in the southwesterly flow ahead of the next upper-level <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> (marked by the black-dashed line). The High Country will be under the gun for <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> thunderstorms producing heavy rain, and the Eastern Plains will be dealing with strong thunderstorms due to a developing lee-<span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span>\/cool front. The upper-level <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> will move east of Colorado on Friday, ushering in drier air as a surface high stabilizes the atmosphere a bit.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<\/ul><p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/07062015_WV1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-1150 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/07062015_WV1.png\" alt=\"07062015_WV\" width=\"479\" height=\"319\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>After Event #2, upper-level ridging will take over again for a few days, but the active wave <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;train&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>train<\/span> will continue. Another upper-level <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> appears poised to push through just after the 21st. Keep an eye on future FTO&rsquo;s for updates on this developing situation. Mother Nature doesn&rsquo;t appear ready to relax.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Tuesday (07-07-2015) through Friday (07-10-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><em><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">High Flood Threat<\/span> As Deep, Subtropical Moisture Persists over Colorado<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The approaching upper-level low will continue the transport of subtropical moisture into Colorado. <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;precipitable water&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Precipitable water<\/span> values across the state will stay near, or above, 1 inch through the entirety of the event. The best coverage of storms, <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widespread&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;greater than 60% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widespread<\/span> at times, will be across the High Country and adjacent lower elevations. One thing is certain, heavy rain will be a threat with any thunderstorms with the sheer amount of moisture available.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, a surface dry line will develop over the Eastern Plains, bringing the threat of severe weather back to Eastern Colorado. Large hail, lightning, and strong winds will be the primary threats, but heavy rain will also be attendant.<\/p>\n<p>Be sure to check back in daily with the Flood Threat Bulletin to stay up-to-date on this event.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/a.tiles.mapbox.com\/v4\/sgeiger.ml467c7k\/attribution,zoompan,zoomwheel,geocoder,share.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1Ijoic2dlaWdlciIsImEiOiJmNjc5a3RBIn0.LbLupVkJsS5dbo9fsgrTDg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\" alt=\"Legend\" width=\"94\" height=\"158\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Event #2: Wednesday (07-15-2015) through Thursday (07-16-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><em><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Elevated Flood Threat<\/span> Developing as Subtropical Moisture Returns<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Subtropical moisture will overspread the state again, ahead of an upper-level <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span>. As the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> approaches and passes over the Northern Rockies, a surface low\/lee-side <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> will develop, transporting low-level Gulf Moisture into Eastern Colorado. This <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> will become a cool front as the surface low tracks eastward across the US\/Canadian border. Due to this, severe weather will be possible across the Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Palmer Ridge regions.<\/p>\n<p>Exacerbating the potential heavy rain issues from this event will be the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widespread&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;greater than 60% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widespread<\/span> rainfall from Event #1. Not only will this promote <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;unstable&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the atmosphere is considered unstable if it is conducive to air attempting to rise; the opposite of stable; an unstable atmosphere is necessary for thunderstorms&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>unstable<\/span> soils, but will also leave above-average low-level moisture across Colorado. As we have experienced already this summer, the low-level moisture has promoted several heavy rain events, especially along the Urban Corridor.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/a.tiles.mapbox.com\/v4\/sgeiger.ml46bb10\/attribution,zoompan,zoomwheel,geocoder,share.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1Ijoic2dlaWdlciIsImEiOiJmNjc5a3RBIn0.LbLupVkJsS5dbo9fsgrTDg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\" alt=\"Legend\" width=\"94\" height=\"158\"\/><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 7\/6\/2015 Issue Time: 10:37 AM Mother Nature heard our rumblings about the upper-level ridge&rsquo;s persistence, and has decided to throw a fairly active &ldquo;wave <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;train&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>train<\/span>&rdquo; at Colorado. This &ldquo;wave <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;train&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>train<\/span>&rdquo; is very visible in the water vapor image below, highlighted by the yellow line. From West to East, you can count 4-5 full [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1146"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1146"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1146\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1153,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1146\/revisions\/1153"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}