{"id":1101,"date":"2015-07-02T14:12:25","date_gmt":"2015-07-02T20:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1101"},"modified":"2015-07-02T14:12:25","modified_gmt":"2015-07-02T20:12:25","slug":"fto-07-02-2015-two-elevated-flood-threat-events-in-the-next-5-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1101","title":{"rendered":"FTO 07-02-2015: Two Elevated Flood Threat Events in the Next 5 Days"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 7\/2\/2015<br>\nIssue Time: 2:02 PM<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/Threat_Timeline_20150702.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-1100 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/Threat_Timeline_20150702.png\" alt=\"Threat_Timeline_20150702\" width=\"905\" height=\"123\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If you have grown tired of hearing about the upper-level ridge over the western US then this FTO is not going to bring you any relief. True to this time of year, this ridge has remained entrenched and is winning just about every fight with upper-level lows trying to break it down. This will likely remain the case over the next 15 days, as the defiant ridge hangs on. Underneath this ridge, several brief surges of subtropical moisture has made its way into Colorado, mainly following the blue arrow on the water vapor image below. The deep moisture we typically associate with the SW <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;monsoon&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;a seasonal wind that brings moisture and rain to the region into which it blows; there is also a dry phase to monsoons, but popular usage refers only to the wet phase; these winds occur in many places around the world, and where they occur they are responsible for a majority of that location&rsquo;s annual precipitation&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>monsoon<\/span> has remained over the Eastern Pacific, confined in the region outlined in green.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/WV_20150702.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-1099 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/WV_20150702.png\" alt=\"WV_20150702\" width=\"497\" height=\"333\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>With that said, there are two events to discuss, both coming within the next 5 days. After that time, it appears that the upper-level ridge takes its place in a location favorable to drying Colorado out. However, as we have become accustomed to this summer, the above average spring rains have resulted in sufficient water availability in our soils. This will lead to the continued pattern of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> diurnal thunderstorms throughout the remainder of the period, with little-to-no flooding expected. So, without further ado, let&rsquo;s get back to the two events at hand&hellip;<\/p>\n<ul><li>Event #1: Friday (07-03-2015)\n<ul><li>The remaining moisture from the latest surge, and little change to the upper-level pattern, will provide one more day of showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain. On Saturday, the upper-level ridge will flatten out and the deeper moisture will move south of Colorado.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<li>Event #2: Sunday (07-05-2015) through Tuesday (07-07-2015)\n<ul><li>Event #2 shows up well in the water vapor image below, circled in purple. This will ride the ridge, so to speak, with the main upper-level low moving into the Northern Plains. Trailing energy associated with that low will track across Colorado, pushing a cool front through the plains Sunday night\/Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms associated with these features will last through Tuesday, before the ridge flattens out again, bringing drier, westerly flow once again.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<\/ul><h3><strong>Event #1: Friday (07-03-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><em><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Elevated Flood Threat<\/span> East of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Divide<\/span> as Moist, Upslope Flow Persists<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Little change in the upper-level pattern between today and tomorrow, leaving tomorrow with an Elevated Flood Threat. Moist, upslope flow will persist east of the mountains, leaving deeper moisture in place across the lower elevations and into the foothills and Front Range. Daytime heating will combine with the moisture to create sufficient instability for the production of a few strong-to-severe storms, so this threat will need to be monitored, as well.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/a.tiles.mapbox.com\/v4\/sgeiger.mk26cl38\/attribution,zoompan,zoomwheel,geocoder,share.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1Ijoic2dlaWdlciIsImEiOiJmNjc5a3RBIn0.LbLupVkJsS5dbo9fsgrTDg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\" alt=\"Legend\" width=\"94\" height=\"158\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Event #2: Sunday (07-05-2015) through Tuesday (07-07-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><em><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Elevated Flood Threat<\/span> Developing as Deep Moisture and Upslope flow Returns<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As the main upper-level low moves into the Northern Plains, the trailing energy will track across Colorado, pushing a cool front through the plains Sunday night\/Monday morning. East of the mountains, this cool front will provide upslope flow, driving moisture back into the foothills and bringing the threat of heavy rain back to the Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge. Over the high country, <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;precipitable water&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>precipitable water<\/span> values will be sufficiently high (near 1 inch) to create efficient rainfall within <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> thunderstorms driven by the upper-level energy and daytime heating. The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten late Tuesday\/early Wednesday morning and allow the mid-levels to dry out leading into mid-week.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/a.tiles.mapbox.com\/v4\/sgeiger.mk26h3hk\/attribution,zoompan,zoomwheel,geocoder,share.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1Ijoic2dlaWdlciIsImEiOiJmNjc5a3RBIn0.LbLupVkJsS5dbo9fsgrTDg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\" alt=\"Legend\" width=\"94\" height=\"158\"\/><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 7\/2\/2015 Issue Time: 2:02 PM If you have grown tired of hearing about the upper-level ridge over the western US then this FTO is not going to bring you any relief. True to this time of year, this ridge has remained entrenched and is winning just about every fight with upper-level lows trying [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1101"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1101"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1101\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1104,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1101\/revisions\/1104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}