A strong shortwave trough<\/span> is expected to move over western Colorado today bringing widespread<\/span> thunderstorms and gusty winds to the area. Moderate levels of mid-level moisture can be seen in the blue and white colors over Utah in the mid-level water vapor imagery below. Embedded within the jet stream<\/span> (orange line below) are a series of shortwaves that will move over western Colorado throughout the afternoon and well into tomorrow morning. These features and enhanced lift from the jet stream<\/span> will bring widespread<\/span> showers and thunderstorms over the west. PW<\/span> was measured at 0.53 inches this morning over Grand Junction and is forecast to increase up to 0.75 inches this afternoon. Most of the moisture is concentrated in the mid-levels, which will keep storms high based this afternoon, so gusty winds in the storm vicinity area likely.<\/p>\n With the jet overhead steering flows are expected to be greater than 30 mph out of the southwest, so max 1-hour rainfall rates will be limited to 0.5 inches with most areas receiving rates closer to 0.25 inches. These fast flows will also create sustained wind gusts up to 35 mph over and to the west of the Continental Divide<\/span> with wind gusts up to 55 mph possible in the vicinity of the stronger thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected over the Southwest Slope and San Juan Mountains where PW<\/span> is expected to increase up to 1.1 inches briefly this afternoon, so a Low flood threat has been issued for the 416 burn area. Storms tracking over the burn area will be capable of reaching max 1-hour rainfall rates up to 0.4 inches with 2-3 hour totals capable of reaching 0.6 inches. Threats include debris flows, mud slides and flooding of small rivers and streams.<\/p>\n Low pressure remains over the Southeast Plains this morning with downsloping<\/span> flow off of the Southeast mountains creating a dryline<\/span> (red dashed line below) over the area. This feature will provide lift for early afternoon thunderstorms which will be capable of producing moderate rainfall rates, large hail and gusty winds. Steering flows are expected to be slow (8 mph – 13 mph) out of the south\/southwest. This will cause storms to sit over the area with max 2-3 hour rainfall rates up to 1.4 inches possible. Storms are also expected to move off of the Front Range and over the northern Urban Corridor and western Northeast Plains this afternoon and tonight, but rainfall rates are forecast to be below flood threat criteria. Flooding is not forecast over these areas today.<\/p>\n
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