{"id":10338,"date":"2019-08-15T08:34:34","date_gmt":"2019-08-15T14:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=10338"},"modified":"2019-08-15T08:34:50","modified_gmt":"2019-08-15T14:34:50","slug":"ftb-08-15-2019-break-from-heavy-rainfall-and-severe-thunderstorms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=10338","title":{"rendered":"FTB 08-15-2019: Break from Heavy Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday, August 15th, 2019<br>\nIssue Time: 8:35AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash; Flooding is <strong>NOT <\/strong>expected today<\/em><\/p>\n<p>There&rsquo;s a break in <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;severe thunderstorms&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Thunderstorms that produce a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 kts) and\/or hail at least 1&amp;quot; in diameter.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>severe thunderstorms<\/span> and heavy rainfall forecast for Thursday as northwest flow ushers in a dry air mass. This dry air can be seen by the cloud free skies over Utah and Wyoming in the visible satellite imagery below. <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> values have dropped off both east and west of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span> as forecast in the FTO. This morning&rsquo;s sounding measured Denver&rsquo;s <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> at 0.59 inches and Grand Junction&rsquo;s <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> at 0.51 inches, which is well below average for this time of year. Most of the remaining low level moisture east of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Divide<\/span> will mix out from west to east throughout the day. While there will be some higher moisture and <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;CAPE&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Convective Available Potential Energy) CAPE is a measure of the amount of available energy in the atmosphere for convection. Higher values indicate a greater potential for stronger updrafts, thus an increase in the potential for thunderstorms and severe weather.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>CAPE<\/span> values along the Colorado border, it doesn&rsquo;t look like there will be any disturbances to help break the <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;cap&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The area where a parcel of air has negative buoyancy or sinks. The intensity of the cap is measured by its convective inhibition. If the cap is sufficiently large, it may prevent thunderstorms from forming at all.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>cap<\/span>. Also forecasting the dense fog over the Northeast Plains to dissipate with a little more morning heating.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/vis_20190815.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-10339\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/vis_20190815.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"459\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As far as storm potential today, a couple high-based, <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span>, weak storms are forecast with residual moisture under the ridge over the eastern San Juan Mountains. Some heftier cloud cover will also occur over the Northwest Slope by late this afternoon, but only a drop or two of rainfall is forecast. There is a 20-30% chance for an <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storm or two over the far Southeast Plains along the CO\/KS border, but rainfall totals should remain below 0.20 inches. Flooding is not forecast.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2019.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8803\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/FTB_No_Flood_Threat_2019.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"580\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Northwest Slope, Southwest Slope, Grand Valley, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Best chance for storms today will be over the eastern San Juan Mountains. Without much changing in the way of forcing and moisture from yesterday, thinking totals for rainfall will be under 0.10 inches. Additional cloud cover will move into the Northwest Slope later this afternoon, which should provide some relief from the heat. High temperatures over the lower valleys will be in the upper 90&deg;Fs with low 90Fs over the mid-level elevations. Flooding is not forecast.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 2PM to 8PM<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge,Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Another day with seasonable high temperatures. The northeast corner of the state might be a little bit cooler than the Southeast Plains, but 90&deg;Fs are forecast across all lower elevations. Storms that form over the Southeast Plains will produce under 0.20 inches, so flooding is not forecast. There is an <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;MCS&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Mesoscale Convective System) A complex of thunderstorms that produces a large, contiguous area of precipitation on the order of 100 km or more in the horizontal scale and normally persist for several hours or more.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>MCS<\/span> that forms over the NE panhandle tonight, so this may cause another round of fog tomorrow morning over the northeast corner of the state.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 3PM to 9PM<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday, August 15th, 2019 Issue Time: 8:35AM MDT &mdash; Flooding is NOT expected today There&rsquo;s a break in <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;severe thunderstorms&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Thunderstorms that produce a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 kts) and\/or hail at least 1&amp;quot; in diameter.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>severe thunderstorms<\/span> and heavy rainfall forecast for Thursday as northwest flow ushers in a dry air mass. This dry air can be seen by the cloud free skies over Utah and Wyoming in the visible [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10338"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10338"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10338\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10341,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10338\/revisions\/10341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}