![\"\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FTO_20190808.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThere are two events identified in this FTO. Event #1 from the last FTO is currently ongoing through tomorrow, but for simplicity sake, I tied it into the heavy rainfall event forecast this weekend since the dynamics are similar enough. Friday into this weekend, the low marked below will start to traverse east. This will push out some mid-level energy in front of it, which will also mix with shortwaves moving around the subtropical high. This will help create more widespread<\/span> storm activity, especially if the shortwaves pass overhead during peak heating. At the same time, the subtropical high will be in a favorable position to maintain the PW<\/span> surge, although values are forecast to drop off a bit from today. This PW<\/span> surge will mostly favor locations east of the Continental Divide<\/span>, but some higher PW<\/span> values are expected to push northward over the southwest corner of the state Saturday and Sunday before the upper flow turns more westerly (dries it out). This could be problematic for the 416 burn area as rain rates will likely increase. Some cooler temperatures are forecast for this weekend, and much cooler temperatures are forecast for early next week after a cold front pushes south Monday into Monday night.<\/p>\n There is a lull in afternoon rain during the work week as the subtropical high becomes rather weak and broad over our area. This will allow more westerly winds, which will pull in dry air from the west (similar to the mechanism seen below). The next low looks to move through sometime near the weekend of August 17th<\/sup>. Not as much confidence in this forecast, but the narrow ridge would be pushed east allowing for a weaker monsoon<\/span> surge northward. Models pointing to the monsoon<\/span> season wrapping up after this event, which if it occurs, would lineup with climatology.<\/p>\n Incredible PW<\/span> surge currently going on, which is always possible during the monsoon<\/span> season. PW<\/span> values over western CO are close to daily max PW<\/span> records and, obviously, well above climatology. This surge is expected to last through this weekend before the model members start showing a decline in PW<\/span> values. Expect the coverage of storms to follow this trend with isolated<\/span> afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely only over the mountains from Tuesday forward. To the west, PW<\/span> is currently declining due to the dry air (marked in the image above) rotating around the high and into western Colorado. Slight moisture surge on Saturday, which will be something to watch<\/span> for the 416 burn area. Very low moisture by the end of next week and the approaching trough<\/span> will cause us to watch<\/span> for fire weather conditions. However, an increase in southwest winds is also anticipated, so the more likely scenario is that these winds will intensify the moisture; thus, lessening the chances for fire weather.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n