–A LOW<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for the Northeast Plains and portions of the Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains, Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, Grand Valley and Central Mountains. This includes the Spring Creek burn area.<\/em><\/p>\n A monsoonal moisture surge will occur over western Colorado today as the subtropical high moves east throughout the day, allowing advection<\/span> of high PW<\/span> values northward. This increase in moisture can be seen by the cloud cover over southwest Colorado in the visible satellite imagery below. Embedded within the flow is a shortwave<\/span> marked by an “X”, which will make its way eastward throughout the day. The high levels of moisture coupled with this upper level dynamic forcing is forecast to cause widespread<\/span> precipitation over the high country. Upper level steering flows between 10 and 15 mph over western Colorado will allow storms to sit over the Low threat area. Cloud cover associated with the approaching shortwave<\/span> will likely limit instability for stronger thunderstorms. However, persistent, pulse-like storms over the area will cause some moderate 2-3 hour rainfall totals. The widespread<\/span> nature of the moderate rainfall totals will cause a Low flood threat to be issued. If multiple storms track over the 416 burn scar, there is a chance for flooding due to totals in the area reaching up to 1 inch over a 2-3 hour period.<\/p>\n Thunderstorms are also forecast over the eastern plains, which will be generated by a surface dry line (orange dashed line below). The passage of the shortwave<\/span> overhead will generate and deepen a new surface low over the area by mid-afternoon. This will help to scour out moisture along the Front Range and Southeast Mountains, so more scattered<\/span> storms are anticipated over the eastern mountains with rain rates under flood threat criteria. The one exception is the Spring Creek burn area. The chances of flooding over the burn area are on the lower end of the Low threat spectrum, but storms early in the day may prime the atmosphere for 1 to 1.5 hour rainfall rates up to 0.5 inches. Higher moisture over the Northeast Plains will cause some heavy rainfall with the shortwave<\/span> passing at peak heating. Storms moving between 15 and 20 mph to the southeast should be fast enough that the threat should only last for 1 to 2 hours. A couple stronger thunderstorms are possible before an MCS<\/span> forms, which may cause isolated<\/span> storms to produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and up to 1.25 inch diameter hail. There is a Low flood threat issued for this area.<\/p>\n
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